Facebook & WhatsApp: ins and outs, en El País

Facebook & WhatsApp: ins and outs - El PaísLa semana pasada grabé un vídeo (en inglés, con subtítulos en español) para la sección Via@IEBusiness, de El País, y ha sido publicado hoy.

A continuación, las notas que utilicé como guión:

  • Price: 19 billion dollars, almost 14 billion euro. $42/user
  • WhatsApp is a 53 people company, that has created what it is essentially a bad product, inferior in features to most of the other instant messenger apps, with a terrible lack of focus in security, lack of stability, and an unclear and messy monetization strategy
  • The company had a revenue of 20 million, with the relevant cost, besides the payroll, being the 30% commission that WhatsApp pays to Apple and Google to distribute the app.
  • Some customers have paid a yearly fee of $0.99, others have paid nothing. Out of the total customer base of 450 million users, only about 20.2 million users have paid, a mere 4.5%. And in some markets, when the company tried to push for monetization, the users have revolted.
  • WhatsApp has enjoyed a great growth: we were comparing it to SMS. Now, the instant messaging panorama is crowded, with better applications (Telegram, Line, WeChat, Viber… even Google Hangout, which hasn’t said anything yet) and loyalty is very scant. Telegram grew more than fifteen million users only during last week. This processes are completely viral and impossible to control.
  • The network effect: of course important, but easier to bridge in a local, small scale. We communicate with not so many people.
  • User data? About 80% of the WhatsApp users are not new to Facebook.
  • Huge adoption among teens? Yes, but they grow older. And they change tools with extreme ease as they lose the “cool factor”
  • Monetization: no ads (ever), nothing but the subscription fees. IM for business or professional markets? Forget it! It is not gonna happen
  • WhatsApp announced voice calls. OK, good luck with that! Skype is there (330 million subscribers, $2 billion revenues), and many others. And voice is a feature with diminishing returns: teens are not into voice, they don’t use it
  • Viber: bought by Rakuten, $900 million, 300 million users. That sounds like a reasonable valuation.
  • Facebook valuation: $170 billion, 1250 million users, about $130/user. Try to bring as many WhatsApp users to Facebook and monetize them there? Good luck with that
  • There are no precedents for operations of this scale. It might be difficult to understand. But I think it just makes no sense.

 

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6 comentarios

  • #001
    javier - 14 Marzo 2014 - 11:34

    Yo pienso exactamente lo mismo, hay competidores que dan los mismos servicios o incluso mejores y gratis, aun asi, lo que es cierto es que al menos yo en la aplicacion de telegram no tengo apenas 15 contactos, mientras que familiares como tios, madre etc siguen en whatsapp, hay es donde reside un poco el rechazo a cambiar de app.

  • #002
    Productora audiovisual Raff & Batavia - 14 Marzo 2014 - 14:48

    Leí que las cuentas daban en torno a 40$ pagados por Facebook por cada usuario de Whatsapp.

    A un euro al año por cada cliente… no se muy bien de que forma esperan recuperar la inversión y obtener beneficio como cualquier empresa.

    O esperan potenciar y llegar a muchos más usuarios.. o puede que nos espere una temporada de farmville en whatsapp, subida de precios o incluso publicidad?

    Lo de que la privacidad peligra en whatsap.. ya peligraba anteriormente y por supuesto seguirá peligrando. Por mucho que lo intenten negar.

    Un saludo.

  • #003
    Xaquín - 14 Marzo 2014 - 15:41

    El video parece interesante pero o Apple me toma el pelo (no me extrañaría) o el subtitulo no funciona (y mi inglés tampoco)…

  • #004
    Sunfas Tradelo ("Garepubaro") - 14 Marzo 2014 - 18:06

    Pues que al Enrique no le importa hablar solo e incluso lo disfruta y lo necesita, como todo el mundo a todos nos pasa hoy lo mismo, la cosa esta asi, es lo que hay

  • #005
    vivaldibonao - 15 Marzo 2014 - 03:52

    I never imagined myself talking pro whatsapp, but this time i have to do it. Enrique you wrong in some points, Whatsapp isn´t a bad product, is easier than the rest, is faster, is not the best, is lack of security I KNOW IT. but most people use facebook as a social network and is not the best one, but, is good, it works, is easy to use, and if most people is whatsapp is for something. Have a nice day.

  • #006
    lector - 15 Marzo 2014 - 09:28

    Enrique, mi madre no ha usado un ordenador en su vida pero usa whatsapp a la perfección. De hecho para ella su smartphone es un teléfono con whatsapp. Te veo muy empecinado en este tema. Quizá deberías coger el metro y fijarte lo que la gente hace con sus móviles.. Whatsapp!

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